I Heard The Crows Call For Rain
By
August 8, 2010 at 1:07 PM
Font size:
Nearly 70 percent of India’s population relies almost exclusively on agriculture, so accurate weather forecasts are extraordinarily important. During the past 100 years, the monsoon has been normal 85 times, so predicting an uneventful season is relatively safe. Nevertheless, during the last two decades, the official rainbow chasers have gone terribly awry.
However, the IMD has failed to predict a single drought in the last 130 years. Throughout the past 20 years, it has predicted only “normal” monsoons, whereas the country experienced floods in 1994 and catastrophic droughts in 1987, 2002, 2004 and 2009. IMD’s projections have proven correct only four times in the last 16 years, representing a failure rate of an astronomical 75 percent. Back to basics
Parshotambhai Kanani, a professor at the Gujarat Agricultural University in Junagadh, was one of the earliest scholars to tap the Indigenous Technical Knowledge (ITK) for rain prediction. He researched and published papers on traditional meteorological principles in Saurashtra from 1990-1998. Kanani related how he was drawn to the research. In 1990, IMD predicted a normal monsoon for the nation as a whole. Although the monsoon was indeed normal in the rest of the country, it eluded the region of Saurashtra even in July, setting farmers on edge. Kanani chanced upon two unknown local meteorological experts, Devjibhai Jamod of Jetalsar village, an engine driver with Indian Railways, who recorded meteorological observations daily and predicted rainfall as a hobby, and a farmer and school teacher Jadhavbhai Kathiria of Alidhra village.
Kanani says, “We were intrigued by their observations and predictions. Their prediction came accurate.” Kanani put out a public appeal for information on local meteorological experts. Hundreds of farmers wrote back. It was the genesis of a grass-root society, which organizes the annual Monsoon Seminar where state farmers gather to share data and figure out the onset of rains for the next year. Kanani, with the Ancient Rain-Prediction Network (ARPN), prepares weather charts targeted at farmers. These agro-climatologists draw upon one invaluable resource — the farmers’ panchang or almanacs, which have been in use since the 4th century BC. Based on folklore, astrology, rituals and ancient literature, the 30-odd panchangs across the country are the closest equivalents to the U.S. Old Farmer’s Almanac. Two of the most-reliable predictors are based on Bhadli’s couplets on wind direction on two specific days: Akshaya Tritya and Holi. Interpretations of the wind direction on these days foretell monsoon, and also diseases, pests, and expected yield of the crop for the season.
Technology weds Astrology Anand Agricultural University (AAU) in Gujarat publishes Nakshtra-Charan, a forecast calendar based on planetary positions, which is popular among local farmers. M.C. Varshney, vice chancellor of the university says, “Planetary system obviously influences the gaseous atmosphere of the earth and so the monsoons. Our validation of the forecast indicates accuracy ranging between 40 to 73 percent for various zones across the state”. Similar predictions are published by astro-meteorologist Dhansukh Shah who links the amount of precipitation with Nakshatra, the position of planets. For example, planet Mercury is responsible for bringing rain in Saurashtra while Venus controls rain in Maharashtra, he says. His yearly predictions for the year’s monsoon season are released in April-May. Shah says, “I prefer calling it forecasting of monsoon based on the solar system and not astrology because as soon as you call it that, the brows rise.”
The IMD, jointly with the Central Research Institute for Dry-land Agriculture (CRIDA), Hyderabad, undertook a pilot project of blending meteorological data with astrological kundalis (horoscopes) to predict rainfall. Earlier, CRIDA had scrutinised the Bio and Astro methods of rain predictions and published a book Indigenous Rain Forecasting in Andhra Pradesh, which validated several folk measures. YS Ramakrishna, then-director of CRIDA and publisher of the book, said that the two expositions by sage Varahamihira — Brahad Samhita and Panchasiddhantika — provide precise details on how to perform the calculations and the principles used in formulating predictions. “Astro-meteorology combined with scientific observations is being proved to be better than mere scientific forecasts. There is an accuracy rate of 60 to 70 percent and there is always a relevance of ancient wisdom for weather forecasting for improving agro-advisories,’’ Ramakrishna says. A number of studies, both field and observation, according to the CRIDA study, validated folk methods of predicting rain. Dr. K Ravi Shankar, a researcher at CRIDA, says, “Even the positioning of the nest by weaver bird was found to be a good indicator of long-range weather forecast in Rangareddy district.” Dr. S.R. Joshi, a well-known astro-meteorologist says: “The basic factors taking part in forecasting rainfall are the same today as they were in the Vedic period. The planets that are moving in the solar system are governed by mutual attractions. Hence, the position of different planets in the solar system indicates the position of clouds.”
He adds, “For more than a decade now, I have been predicting rains, floods, droughts and quakes and my forecast rarely go wrong. Meteorology departments’ success rate can’t stand against mine. All credit goes to our ancestors and yogis who wrote these Vedas and Upanishads. I am a mere decoder.” T Unnikrishnan, a Kerala astro-meteorologist who has collaborated with Dr GLHV Prasada Rao of Kerala Agricultural University, says, “The astrological predictions are occurring 99 percent true in Kerala. IMD predicted the onset of monsoon in Kerala from the first week of May to the 31st day of the month, whereas Astro-Meteorology gave dates from 9th of June to 6th of July this year. When I approached IMD they didn’t believe me, when they went wrong, blamed it on El-Niño.” Srikant Jha of Patna’s College of Agriculture says: “All across timeless India, those living off the land are turning to ancient portents rather than relying on a government forecasting machinery that invariably fails them.” He notes wryly, “The Cray Supercomputers with meteorologists cannot match their accuracy.” Jha points out that long before the IMD predicted a drought in Rajasthan, the Bhil tribes of the Thar were already prepared. The extra bushy Khair trees and the wild cucumbers, which had sprouted everywhere, were omen
Anil Gupta, a professor at the Centre for Management in Agriculture, Ahmedabad, in scarcely surprised. “After all, what are these indicators? These are recognition of patterns in weather behaviour. Why should the search for patterns not deserve proper scientific scrutiny?” In 1993, prominent Indian meterologist P.R. Pisharoty validated a crucial pattern first outlined in the Brahad Samhita, a 6th Century encyclopedia by Indian astronomer Daivajna Varhamihira, in a paper titled “Plant that Predicts Monsoon” in the Honey Bee journal, in which he councluded that the Amaltas or Golden Shower tree is a uniquely accurate indicator of rain as it bears abundant bunches of golden yellow flowers just 45 days before the onset of monsoon. Says Vasudev: “Modern day compartmentalization of spirituality and science has led us to ignore the age old wisdom of our ancestors. But the ancient combined approach of religion and science could immensely help the society live a better informed life.”
|
Email
Print
Until such strong correlation or prediction success happens, everything is pure conjecture.
Post your comment